ENDURE: October 24, 2014

Thinking downstream......the fine balance of pushing limits with the coziness of a coat

Spoiler Summary: It's a little bit like looking into the future with a splash of pay now or pay later mindset.....except not as much "cost" as "investment" since the payoff is pretty great.

As the wind whipped, I shivered a little.  As was the case more than once before, the spectating side of the soccer field was at least 15 degrees colder than the weather at home....and the wind....oh that wind.  I'm sure there's some very logical explanation - the topography makes it a natural wind tunnel or something, but all I really know is that it's always cold.  "Yes" I thought, as I thankfully realized that I had stashed an extra layer in the trunk for just such an occasion.  I don't remember when I did it, but I was sure happy it was there when I needed it - which got me thinking: When did I start thinking about "the odds" (in this case of being stuck in soccer-Siberia without a coat) or "the likelihood" or even "the risk" of something?  Was it always there - as in an innate personality thing?  Or was it more an age thing?  Hmm.....

Well, like most things it turns out to be an "it depends" thing.  Certainly there is a brain-development component; The National Institute of Mental Health says for example: "The parts of the brain responsible for more "top-down" control, controlling impulses, and planning ahead - the hallmarks of adult behavior - are among the last to mature".  However it's definitely got a personality component as well.  I found one research-psychologist who blogged about work he and his colleagues had done on the topic. They showed risk-taking was associated with certain personality traits, influenced not only by genes and age, but also significantly by social influences and hormones.....which of course only solidifies that the perennial adolescent answer of "I dunno" to the parental question: "what were you thinking?" is probably more accurate than it seems. It also means that the accurate answer (from a neuropsychological standpoint) to "if everyone else jumped off a cliff would you?" might be "probably".

So as I made my way back to the sideline, much more content and cozy in my added layers, I thought about the fact that thinking in terms of downstream effects (a "prevention" mindset) was pretty convenient this time, that I couldn't remember how many times I had to be chilled to the bone before I started thinking ahead and packing an extra coat.....and, of course, that I probably wouldn't get real far in trying to find out why my 10 year old left hers at home.

What would the world look like if thinking downstream was the norm from our early years?  Would we be safer and healthier? The logic and evidence of taking safety precautions and consistently healthy actions is hard to argue.  However, without risk-takers we might not have nearly the progress we so enjoy.  I could've never read a neuropsych blog on an iPhone for example. There would be no gore-tex to make my coat so warm and the freezing cold sideline in New Jersey might still be farmland if no one was willing to take a chance on turf.  So where's the sweet-spot?  Where's the balance?

Certainly "I dunno" could fit here in most cases too - but we shouldn't settle for that.  Maybe it's in the words of the most successful risk-reward manager of our time.  His risk is not a health or safety risk.....but risk nonetheless.  His resume, which includes some of the most impressive victories in history could never have been so robust without taking some calculated risk....and, well, at 84 years old and still "in the game" he's got some credibility in terms of longevity.

Nonetheless, we don't typically think Warren Buffet when we think stories of prevention....but we probably could. If we changed long-term thinking quotes like: "If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes" to "If you're not willing to invest an hour into yourself everyday now, don't even think about how great tomorrow will be" - the mindset is remarkably similar.

So in addition to knowing that "15 minutes could save you 15%" (a company Buffet owns), if you knew that 40 minutes of cardio could save you 20% on heart attack (over 10 years) and 7 servings of fruit & veggie could save you 25% on cancer, would it be worth it? If not, how many more times do you need to be standing in the cold before you pack a coat?  

Let us know when you're ready!

Have a great week,

Mike E.